In 2006 Barack Obama wrote "The Audacity of Hope.” This was both a memoir and a call to action. The book outlined his vision for America. Two years later he beat John McCain for the presidency and four years later won his second term defeating George Romney. He did fulfill his promise to bring hope to the country. People like us had hope.
Then Trump came along. He was bad but he didn’t turn out to be as bad as many of us thought he would be. Next came President Biden and we breathed a collective sigh of relief.
As of 2025, President Joe Biden ranks approximately 14th among U.S. presidents based on recent surveys of scholars and political scientists. This ranking places him in the upper tier of modern presidents. Obama is ranked as seventh, and Trump is rated as 45th, dead last. (This is from an AI query.)
Yesterday I wrote “The futility of desperately seeking hope.”
Today I want to be less dire as I look at Amercia’s future. I want to share what gives me hope, albeit meager hope, that the country won’t descend into the hell of a brutal dictatorship.
Much of what I think could happen to stop this descent and reverse its course so democracy is restored is unlikely to happen. I still think what I described yesterday is what America will look like in a year or two.
The most likely chance I see of my vision not being realized is that Donald Trump dies and Vance takes over and he decides that without having Trump around he wants to reverse his most draconian and cruel policies.
Assuming Trump lives, I see variations of a few occurrences that could achieve different positive results.
Lots of people are pinning their hope for thwarting Trump’s worse excesses on the Democrats taking over Congress. They assume that Trump will abide by the laws they pass. When it comes to this I am not sanguine. Trump may be so confident in his power that he defies Congress. The same applies to rulings of the Supreme Court which, while much less likely to go against him in a major way like a Democratic Party controlled Congress would, might still try to stop his most egregious violations of both presidential norms and of the Constitution. Trump could simply ignore Supreme Court rulings he doesn’t like.
The actions I describe would undoubtedly lead to the Democratic House impeaching him. His being convicted in the Senate would mean that enough Republican senators decided he had turned the country into something abhorrent even to them so they would risk not being reelected and they would vote him out.
This could happen. It would depend on public sentiment combined with the personal morality of enough Republican senators.
Once voted out of office we have the possible scenario of Trump refusing to leave and trying to use the military to keep him in power. This might suceed but I doubt it.
This possiblity brings up the other reason I cling to a slim hope.
In America, like in all countries, there are two forces that decide how a nation is governed. One is the force of law and the other is the force of force, or put another way, the force of the armed forces.
Here are two articles which address what would happen if the military decided that Trump had gone too far:
What Would Happen if the Generals Refused to Follow Orders?
Two Key Takeaways From Quantico
The second article ends with:
More to the point, are the generals and admirals, who took an oath to uphold the US Constitution, ready to resist orders that violate that oath?
Resisting orders could just be the beginning of a military coup. At it’s banana republic, extreme, we’d see tanks surrounding the White House and other federal buildings. We might see Trump arrested.
We could see a a triumvirate of generals and admirals assuming the duties of the president. This might be like unofficial coalition of Julius Caesar, Pompey, and Crassus in 60 BC and the “Second Triumvirate,” which was a coalition formed by Antony, Lepidus, and Octavian in 43 BC. We could see this military triumvirate bring in Barack Obama as temporary president.
They hopefully would maintain power only until free and fair elections could be held.
Thus I see two ways the country can get back to being a democracy. One depends on the on the death of Trump or his removal from office, and (a crucial “and”) President Vance restoring the kind of democracy we’ve had under very conservative presidents like Ronald Reagan.
I asked AI what a Vance presidency would look like. Click here or scroll down for the answer> 1
The other way democracy could be restored is through a military coup. An attempted coup by a significant number, but not overwhelming percentage, of the armed forces could result in a violent civil war. Depending on which side won we could have a restored democracy once the smoke settled and the dead were buried, or an even more brutal dictatorship with executions of members of the losing side. If the authoritarians won we could turn into a country which would make North Korea look like Disneyland.
JD Vance’s Potential Presidential Agenda
If JD Vance were to become President, his agenda is likely to align closely with Donald Trump’s policies, given his current role as Vice President and his involvement in the Trump administration. Here’s a breakdown of what Vance’s presidential focus could look like based on his actions and statements so far.
Key Policy Areas
POLICY AREADETAILSImmigrationAdvocate for strict border security measures, including ending catch-and-release policies and enhancing vetting.Economic PoliciesLikely to support tax cuts for middle and working-class Americans while pushing back against regulations seen as burdensome.HealthcarePotentially push to cut funding for the Affordable Care Act and oppose social programs like Medicare and Social Security.Social IssuesStrong opposition to abortion rights, with support for a nationwide ban and minimal exceptions.Energy PoliciesEmphasize U.S. energy dominance, aiming to streamline regulations and boost fossil fuel production.Foreign PolicyWould likely continue a nationalist agenda, with a strong emphasis on America-first diplomacy.EducationAdvocate for educational reforms that align with conservative values and promote school choice.
Immigration and Border Security
Vance is expected to focus heavily on border security, advocating measures like reinstating “Remain in Mexico” policies and ending asylum for undocumented migrants. His administration might pursue the designation of cartels as foreign terrorist organizations to enhance law enforcement capabilities along the border.
Economic Policies
Vance’s economic agenda will likely include aggressive tax cuts and reducing federal spending on social programs. He has been vocal about viewing the Affordable Care Act and entitlement programs like Social Security as obstacles to fiscal responsibility.
Social Issues
Vance’s stance on social issues, particularly abortion, reflects a hardline conservative view. He supports stringent abortion laws with no exceptions for cases of rape or incest and has articulated views that discourage women from leaving abusive relationships.
National and Foreign Policy
In terms of foreign policy, Vance’s approach is more isolationist, aiming to prioritize American interests without heavy reliance on global agreements or organizations. His administration may focus on reshaping U.S. relationships with traditional allies as well as adversaries, including China.
Summary of Approach
Vance’s role as a “fixer” and enforcer in Trump’s administration suggests he would continue to cha . mpion the America First agenda while likely bringing a more personal, aggressive flair to discourse on both domestic and foreign fronts. His presidency could entail a commitment to reform various aspects of government to streamline processes and enhance support for conservative objectives.
With his potential candidacy for the 2028 presidential election already in discussion, JD Vance is positioning himself as a key figure in the continuation of Trump’s legacy and an enforcer of his policies
No comments:
Post a Comment