There was good and bad news on Rachel Maddow last night. It was the same news. The news was that Trump's favorability rating in the polls are horrible. Does this sound like good news? This is one way to look at it. I see it though a dark glass. Trump only believes in polls when they favor him, but he knows that when mulitple polls are unfavorable towards him they are correct.
As polls turn against him this will hasten Trump's drive to cement his dictatorship. He will keep testing the limits until something unconstitional or illegal that he does goes to the Supreme Court.
When it does, he hopes the ruling will be in his favor, but I have little doubt that if the court rules against him, he plans to ignore the ruling and see if he can get away with it.
He's been able to fire highly competent people and install loyalists in their place, to close down federal buildings, to ban DEI references, to get Musk's team of DOGE warriors into numerous departments where they can mess with computer data and, most tellingly, shut down USAID despite the public outcry over the deaths that this was causing
This is penny ante stuff compared with what he intends to do. He wants to be eliminate the American democracy and become the ruler for life of an authoritarian regime. In order to achieve this he can't merely issue orders which defy the Constitution and undermines democracy unless he has the hard power of the state to back them up.
Trump also has shown every indication that he will abandon Ukraine, drop out of NATO, and develop some sort of alliance with Russia.
Trump believes he controls all the hard power mechanisms in the country. I am sure he relishes watching his heavily armed ICE agents, who look like SWAT members attacking a drug kingpin's lair, storming into some house using flash-bang grenades.
Trump, with the approval of Kash Patel as FBI director, now controls all of the departments that can exercise hard power. By hard I mean that they have guns and the power to arrest people, and worse.
Steve Bannon is pushing for Trump to run for a third term. Whether this would pass constitutional muster with the Supreme Court remains to be seen and it might be irrelevant. If Trump succeeds in turning the country into a dictatorship he doesn't need to run for office. If he knows that the majority of voters won't vote for him, he won't bother setting up a fake election so he could win. He could just suspend elections.
I fear that Trump will find an excuse to call some kind of national emergency. This could be as simple as ginning up a lie about needing to stop a fentanyl influx, or protests that even if they aren't violent he says could turn violent. Once Trump knows he controls the military, he could find an excuse to invoke martial law.
Forget the Posse Comitatus Act, he'd just ignore it.
It isn't a sure thing that just because Trump has put loyalists in control federal hard power that the foot soldiers will do their bidding. All of them swore oaths, but there's a contradiction in, for example, the US Army oath. Soldiers swear to obey the Constitution, but also sweat to obey the orders of the President of the United States.
Even if a large number of his hard power Gestapo and SS troops quit or accept early retirement, their places could be filled by people like members of far right militia groups like the Proud Boys and Oath Keppers. Kash Patel could fill some of the expected vacancies in the FBI with the J6 inssurectionists.
The speed limit sign we are approaching on the road to tyranny says “SPEED, NO LIMIT.” The United States is accelerating along this route. Soon it may be unstoppably barrelling down this road. I see tyranny as being just over the horizon. There’s still hope that the brakes can be slammed on, but how fast we get to the point of no return remains to be seen.
