Opinion by Hal Brown
This story has nothing specific to do with the New York Times science article which inspired my title:
If You Squeeze the Coronavirus, Does It Shatter? Scientists are exploring the physics of viruses, to understand how these pathogens assemble themselves — and might be rent apart.
You should be able to read this article without a subscription.
I just thought the title and subtitle applied to the current state of affairs with Senate Republicans.
Democrats will put together a prosecution which we know will be compelling. If this was an actual case in court the outcome would be a foregone conclusion: guilty as hell.
I think the chances that the Senate will vote to convict Trump are slim to none. On the slim side there is only one thing which I see that can muster the 17 Senate Republicans to vote for conviction.
The answer to the question posed in my title depends on whether Senators, call them pathogens, who know full well that Trump is guilty will actually vote yes on conviction.
Most of you are following the pundits and understand that these Senators will vote against conviction either because they fear being challenged in primaries by hardcore Trumpers when they run again or to a lesser extent because they want to avoid being marginalized by Mitch McConnell and lose whatever positions of power they have in their caucus.
Now to how my title, which asks if you squeeze the GOP does it shatter, applies to the current situation.
The only way I see to do this is to make the case in the most extraordinarily powerful way that the trial becomes must-see TV and that the actual voters some of these Republicans are so afraid of begin to respond to polls showing voters in their states might hold their Republican senators accountable for voting against conviction.
The only thing the majority of Republican senators care about is maintaining their positions and the only ways they can determine whether their vote will effect this is the polls in their states and to a lesser extent newspaper editorials.
I don’t know enough about the politics in the states these senators are from and whether there are enough Republicans there who want Trump convicted and it makes impossible for him to run again to want to their senators to vote for conviction.
The most likely senators who will pay attention to this are those who have to run in the next election. This are the following:
Blunt, Roy (R-MO), Boozman, John (R-AR), Burr, Richard (R-NC), Crapo, Mike (R-ID), Grassley, Chuck (R-IA), Hoeven, John (R-ND), Johnson, Ron (R-WI), Kennedy, John (R-LA), Lankford, James (R-OK), Lee, Mike (R-UT), Moran, Jerry (R-KS), Murkowski, Lisa (R-AK),Paul, Rand (R-KY), Portman, Rob (R-OH), Rubio, Marco (R-FL), Scott, Tim (R-SC), Shelby, Richard C. (R-AL), Thune, John (R-SD),Toomey, Patrick J. (R-PA), and Young, Todd (R-IN)
It is possible that some or all of the five senators, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Mitt Romney, Ben Sasse and Pat Toomey, who voted against Rand Paul’s attempt to stop the trial would also vote for conviction. If all of them did it would bring the total required to 12 additional GOP senators.
Here’s a list with photos of all the Republican senators (note some have announced they are retiring). Some will be familiar to you and unless you are a total political junky many won’t. Do you see anyone there besides (hopefully) Mitt Romney, who you think might vote for conviction?”
Note that Rob Portman is retiring, and as this Politico article notes, if more GOP senators decide to retire this could change things for the Republicans.
Republicans' efforts to win back the majority could be hampered if swing-state incumbents decide not to run again next year.
Republicans need to flip just one seat next year to win back the Senate majority. But retirements are already complicating their path back to power.
Two of the three toughest GOP defensive states on the 2022 Senate map, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, are already open seats, with GOP Sens. Pat Toomey and Richard Burr not planning to run again. That leaves Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson as the most vulnerable Republican up for reelection, but Johnson hasn’t even decided to run for a third term after previously pledging to serve just two. And he said Tuesday he’s in no hurry to decide.
Another relevant article:
And Republicans have a very serious problem.
As they know better than anyone else, the kinds of politicians who populate the Senate don't have a place in the party they've helped create. No matter how much they court Trump's base or dog-whistle to the conspiracy theorists, foreign policy hawks like Marco Rubio of Florida, anti-poverty innovators like Tim Scott of South Carolina, old-school appropriators like Roy Blunt of Missouri, chameleons like Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and erstwhile constitutional libertarians like Mike Lee of Utah don't have a place in a party whose future belongs to Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Lauren Boebert of Colorado, two freshman Republicans who have expressed sympathy for the QAnon cult.
The article concludes:
Yet 45 Republican senators voted against taking up the impeachment trial Tuesday. Some want to spend as little time thinking and talking about Trump as possible, but many are still in thrall to his base. TwentyRepublican-held Senate seats will be contested in two years, and the current occupants no doubt fear primary challengers from the MAGA right if they show any sign of breaking with Trump. What's less clear is why, given their rhetoric and behavior over the last four years, they think the country would be any worse off with Trump sycophants in their seats.
Thanks to the impeachment process they've been gifted by the Democrats, Senate Republicans have one last chance to break with Trump and the conspiracist authoritarianism he represents. Their opening move Tuesday was a weak one, but they still have time for a course correction when the vote on conviction takes place next month. If they won't do it for the country, they should at least do it to save their place in the party.
Can Democrats squeeze the GOP enough with their prosecution case so it shatters? One would hope that lust for power would take second place to doing what’s just and right for Democracy for a few Republican senators and they would vote for conviction, but that wish and a dime won’t even buy you a cup of coffee.
Definitely watch Babylon.