Showing posts with label Hal Brown. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hal Brown. Show all posts

November 27, 2022

What to expect from the Donald Trump Comeback Tour

 What to expect from the Donald Trump Comeback Tour

by Hal Brown



First I read this on RawStory which led me to read the article it was based on:


I suggest reading the article which this is a summary of in The Guardian. The excerpts on RawStory didn't convince me Trump would eat DeSantis alive but the full article had so many good points now I lean towards thinking otherwise. Trump will clean his clock. However, if DeSantis puts aside his arrogance and gears up and prepares for what will come if he is the front runner against Trump he may prevail. He will need the equivalent a Navy SEAL training program to toughen up to beat Trump at the martial art he has mastered to the point his killer moves are instinctual. Just ask Hillary Clinton.


The only way I see the Republicans beating Trump in the primaries is for them to coalesce around the candidate who is most capable of taking him on. I doubt this would happen considering the egos involve in the quest to be on the primary debate stage.

Currently of course they are two likely GOP candidates for president in 2024 being discussed, Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis. Anybody but DeSantis seems like a long shot. In reverse order here's how The Washington Post ranked them last week.

10. Sen. Rick Scott

9. Gov. Chris Sununu 

8. Mike Pompeo

7. Nikki Haley

6. Sen. Ted Cruz

5. Sen. Tim Scott

4. Gov. Glenn Youngkin

3. Mike Pence

2. Donald Trump

1. Gov. Ron DeSantis

Honorable mentions: Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.), Sen. Josh Hawley (Mo.), Sen. Tom Cotton (Ark.), Rep. Liz Cheney (Wyo.), Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, South Dakota Gov. Kristi L. Noem, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, Donald Trump Jr.

 

Previously on this list, at No. 6: Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, who — like many MAGA candidates this cycle — ultimately lost her very winnable race and lagged much of her party on the same ballot.


Even though Trump hates losers, he also might find Kari Lake to have charms he can't resist. Who would he want looking with adoration at him between Kari Lake, Nikki Haley, and Kristi Noem. They all might be in close competition with each other. After all Trump think's he's God's gift to women.

Forget about Ted Cruz who is a walking disaster and reputed to be the the  most, if not the most, disliked senator among his colleagues. How desperate is Cruz to get some national attention. Consider how close he's suddenly become to Herschel Walker:


I think Trump will pick a woman because he also thinks she would help him pick up the votes of suburban white women. Even though Nikki Haley is an Indian-American she has an appealing all-American looking family that isn't threatening to the bigots:



If I had to bet he'd chose one of these three women when it came time to announcing running mate. If history is any lesson, he'd make sure it is someone who had mastered the fine art of sucking up to him and also was a national figure. My bets would be on Kari Lake despite, or perhaps because of, her loss in Arizona.

As much as she probably wants to be Trump's running mate I doubt Trump really wants batshit crazy loose cannon Marjorie Taylor Greene to be his VP. I think she has other ambitions.


Of course he could decide on this guy, ya neva know with Trump:

Seriously: 

Trump is the only potential GOP candidate with a hardcore national following. DeSantis is well known but doesn't have large numbers loyal to him. No other potential GOP candidate does.

I predict the GOP primary season will be chaotic but not as chaotic as their convention will be if Trump doesn't come out at the sure winner. 

In that case it will be chaos on steroids with double-crossing dirty dealings going on in every nook and cranny.

If Trump doesn't win the primary I think he will run as an independent. He will wreak vengeance on those who didn't back him by assuring that President Biden, assuming he's the Democratic candidate, won.

Trump's legal status won't make any difference. He could even be in jail. In fact, I think that the more legal jeopardy he's in the more this will fuel his desire to stay in the spotlight and play the tried and true victim game while attacking his accusers.


Related more of less tongue in cheek story:




November 25, 2022

My modified migration to Mastodon

My migration to Mastodon

By Hal Brown


The Mastodon on the lower right is from the platform.


This is what my Mastodon profile looks like:


In case you haven't heard, Twitter is in trouble. Two alternative sites I joined are Tribel and Mastodon. I will focus on Mastodon here because I find it to be the most engaging  and interesting of the two.  People I respect and am familiar with like Robert Reich, George Takei, Kathy Griffin,  and Joy Ann Reid are posting there.

As far as I'm concerned if Kathy Griffin was the only celebrity posting there I would be hooked on the platform. I don't think I ever missed an episode of her "My Life On The D List" TV series.


She recently made the news by being suspended from Twitter by Musk:


He then reinstated her the next week:


Many people post under their real names as I do. A number of them would not be familiar to most people but have profiles on Wikipedia, for example Jennifer Taub, Matt Blaze, Jeff JarvisTanja Bueltmann, and T. Ryan Gregory

 Stephen Fry posts there. His name might sound familiar.

He's the English actor, broadcaster, comedian, director and writer known for among other things playing Jeeves in Jeeves and Wooster.

If you are curious about the background of someone who posted (or "toots") there you can click on their name. Most of them are candid about their backgrounds.

I had a seven part dialogue with one poster who actually had business dealing with him about whether Elon Musk was autist or not. 

I don't know how many there are but there's a large group of former Twitter employees who post on Mastodon.

There's a news section which highlights articles being discussed on Mastodon:

If you are curious enough by now, you can try Mastodon out by joining here


If not read more about it. Mastodon has been in the news. For example, click images to read articles:




Many users of Mastodon and Tribel have closed their Twitter accounts entirely. I haven't because I like to monitor what is going on there and keep an eye on what Elon Musk is doing. At resenting he's using polls to determine whether or not to reinstate banned accounts. This is from HUFFPOST: 

Oh Look, Elon Musk Is Letting More Banned Accounts Back On Twitter

Chief Twit rules by polling now.


I couldn't resist putting on a reply to the most recent tweet from earlier this morning:


It's highly unlikely he'll see my reply considering there were over 30,000 replies, but perhaps a few people will. I think if you use an illustration more people may look at what you tweet. It took a brief web search to find these two drawings.


November 16, 2022

New York Post shows how to get under an attention seeking narcissist's skin


New York Post shows how to get under an attention seeking narcissist's skin

By Hal Brown
Archives of previous stories on right >>

Here's the cover page of the late edition of The New York Post which is on the stands and online today:

Not only was Trump's announcement relegated to the bottom of the page but he was referred to as a "Florida man"and the stories were on page 26 of the print edition.

The crew on "Morning Joe" was laughing about this this morning as they showed the cover of the New York tabloid owned by Rupert Murdoch. 



The paper was shown on MSNBC all day. Below: All In With Chris Hayes.
Inside the paper:



As someone who in a former life lived in Manhattan and took the subway I can attest to the fact that numerous riders read either the New York Post or the other tabloid, The New York Daily News. If I recall the history of these papers, both were planned to be easy to read on subways and buses.

Vintage photo by Stanley Kubrick. https://www.mcny.org/story/riding-subway-stanley-kubrick

When one of them comes out with a compelling cover picture these are seen all over the city Trump always thought he was king of. The papers are also displayed prominently on the few remaining  newsstands (only 330 left) and newspaper boxes all over the city.

It's been reported that the TV addicted Trump sometimes watches the Morning Joe. In fact Joe Scarborough today said that people have told him Trump sometimes "hate watches" the show. (See 

Trump lashes out at media again with personal attacks on ‘Morning Joe’ anchors, from 2017.)

I hope he watched this one. I can see him deriving some pleasure from being depicted in any way on the NY Post cover, even if it mocks him as a cartoon egg about to fall off a wall, but here they don't even use his name. 

Sometimes a picture is worth 1000 words and sometimes an image is so compelling that only two words are needed. This was the case in the notorious New York Post Trumpty Dumpty cover which the media referred to or republished  countless times after it came out. For example a see Google image search below:


Today the NY Post's main website page features Ivanka with this article today on the top of their page.


You can read the articles depicted in my images below from The New York Post. I didn't want to waste time putting links to individual articles here since the titles convey the message that NY Post editors want to convey.

Online, the story, as befits any print edition page 26 stories, is way down the page where, below, you can see the stories editors wanted to declare were more important:

It is noteworthy that the story about Ivanka announcing she won't have anything to do with the campaign is the prominent one related to Trump's announcement.

A few minutes after I took the screen shot shown above this section was changed as below:


Final Update (I have other things I have to do today)

This is how the website orders its stories as of 6:45 AM Pacific Time. (Click image to enlarge)
Related:

Of course this is a "salon" article so there's little chance Trump will read it, but he is certainly aware of the coverage being given to Ivanka not only refusing to go to his speech but then announcing she would have nothing to do with his campaign for the tired reason that she wants to devote more time to her family. In truth she probably wants to be able to defend herself in court cases having to do with her involvement in Trump businesses and to continue her grift.

"Ivanka Trump also gave an exclusive interview to Fox News, which has had a notable turn against Trump after his candidates lost competitive races last week and cut away from his rambling speech on Tuesday."
This was also on "salon" today. Heather "Digby" Parton actually watched Fox News while Trump gave his speech and reports on how their still all-in-for-Trump commentators gushed over how great his speech was.


Recent stories 




November 10, 2022

I managed to find good news for my friends in 10 states


Above are the states aside form Oregon where I have old friends who I keep in touch with.

In following the election results this year unexpectedly I ended up anxiously watching the returns from my newly adopted home state of Oregon since the race for governor was a nail-biter with the right-wing candidate having a good chance of winning. Thank goodness she didn't so I will have Tina Kotek as my governor for the next four years.

I also paid particular attention to the elections in the 10 states where friends live. 

Having lived in Michigan since college until we moved to Massachusetts I have lots of friends there. It was a relief to learn that not only did Gov. Whitmer win but so did all the Democratic statewide candidates. 

Then moving to the other state where I have the most old friends, Massachusetts, despite the misleading headline, this tells the story: 

Maura Healey wins Massachusetts governor's race, NBC News projects, as the first lesbian elected to lead a state

In fact this is literally correct since this election was called before the Oregon governor election was called on Wednesday, but Tina Kotek is also a lesbian.

One of my late wife and my closest friends lives is in Georgia. The good news from there is that Herschel Walker didn't win, but the final chapter will be written when he competes in a runoff with Sen. Warnock. Unfortunately Stacey Abrams lost the race for governor to Brian Kemp.

My best friend from high school and my first wife lives in California. The good news from California is that it is solidly blue thanks to the fact that most Republicans live in the less populated eastern parts of the state.

The race for mayor of Los Angeles is supposed to be non-partisan but it pits Rick Caruso and Karen Bass against each other because  incumbent Mayor Eric Garcetti could not run for re-election due to term limits. "The New York Times' Jennifer Medina wrote that the race “has focused on voters’ worries about public safety and homelessness in the nation’s second-largest city” and could “become a test of whether voters this year favor an experienced politician who has spent nearly two decades in government or an outsider running on his business credentials." 

My impression is that billionaire Caruso is much further to the right than Karen Bass who was chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus.

Why it matters: A first place showing for Caruso would send shockwaves across the Democratic Party and provide another data point that midterm voters in deep-blue places are fed up.

  • But even a second-place finish would almost certainly keep him in play for November. With a dozen names on the ballot and some polling putting Bass, 68, a Black woman, and Caruso, 63, neck and neck, neither has an easy path to clear the 50% needed to avoid a runoff.
  • Some Democrats have even privately fretted that Caruso could win outright before anyone figures out what's happening. He has spent some $37.5 million of his own money. Bass‘ campaign has raised $3.5 million and received $1.1 million in matching contributions.

I have one old friend and a niece who lives in Washington. I don't know about local races there but the good news is that Democrat Patty Murray won 57% to 47% against her Republican opponent. The winners of House races will likely reflect the eastern red sections of the state where I expect there will be GOP winners.

I could even find one piece of good news from Florida where my dear toddler girlfriend lives.

Florida Democrat Maxwell Alejandro Frost made history after he became the first member of Generation Z to be elected to Congress. 25-year-old Frost won his race for Florida’s District 10 with a sweeping vote, pulling in 59% of the vote from his Republican opponent Calvin Wimpish, who only gained 40% of votes from Floridians. Frost will now succeed outgoing Democratic Rep. Val Demings. Of course Demings lost to Marco Rubio who won 58% of the statewide vote to Demings’ 41%.

I also found a smidgen of good news where my childhood best friend, the son of my mother's best friend, currently lives. He lives n the liberal enclave of Sun Valley, Idaho. Of course Idaho is deeply red, but Republican incumbent Gov. Brad Little won easily over his Democratic challenger. What is significant is that he survived a GOP primary challenge from his Trump-backed lieutenant governor, Janice McGeachin.

I have two newly minted friends who live in Missouri. One of them is apolitical and I assume the other favors Democrats. I am not sure how they feel about the results from their state but while a Republican won the US Senate race of their two members of the US House the results were split with Democrat Cori Bush beating her Republican opponent Andrew Jones 72.82% to $24.38%. I think both of them are pleased  that voters approved recreational marijuana 53.11% to 46.89%.

One of my late wife's best friend from childhood lives in Maine where the important race was for governor. There Democrat Janet Mills will remain in office, beating GOP challenger Paul LePage. This is how The Guardian described LePage: 

Paul LePage: is Maine ready to welcome back the ‘Trump before Trump’?


In Virginia, while there were no major races for Governor or Senate, one House race made the national news where Abigail Spanberger won reelection in what is being called a bellwether Virginia district.

Now I am going to send this to the friends referenced here to see if they have anything to add from their home states elections.