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This is a reaction to reading The Aura of Invincibility is Fading in The Contrarian (here).
The meaning of the word aura is “the distinctive atmosphere or quality that seems to surround and be generated by a person.” The title of Jeniffer Rubin’s essay in today’s edition of The Contratian, published in SubStack, suggests that the aura of invincibility around Trump is fading. Her subtitle accurately says that “plenty of people are taking swings at Trump.”
If you’ve been reading my Substacks, you know I have not been basking in warm sunshine of optimism. Quite the contrary, I am in the wilds bundled up in my roaring blizzard togs. I am feeling the stinging icy wind against my face. I am not face down in the snow, but I don’t see the way to the warm safety of my cabin. I don’t need the weather channel to tell me that this is such an unprecedented storm that there’s no way to tell when, if ever, it will end.
There have been lot's of losses for Trump & Co. and many wins for our side, but there is this chilling quote from Gen. Barry McCaffrery: "It is all a "consolidation of power with the people who have the guns."
I think of the heroic World War II Resistance. They had many victories thoughout the war. They even had guns. But for every one German officer killed, the Nazis made civilians pay with their lives 10-20 times over. If the Resistance had explosives, too, but when they blew up a bridge the Nazis destroyed an entire nearby village.
The only way the Nazis were defeated was for the Allies to amass huge military might. I don't see us as being anywhere near to D-Day.
My partner and I are 81. We may not live to to see the Allied victory.
I think Trump and his henchmen will learn from their mistakes and focus their efforts on doing things that they believe will help them the most to achieve their final goal. We know what this is.
They will realize that their mistake was mounting a blizkrieg-like juggernaut. This was overreach where, using Project 2025, as a plan, they tried to do everything at once. But this wasn't actual warfare where Hitler's "lightening war" made sense. This was a planned takeover of a democracy and they treated it like they were invading countries.
DOGE, as well as killing woke and DEI, weren't necessary for them once they installed people like Pete Hegeseth, Kash Patel, Pam Bondi, and others to lead the departments and agencies which had guns. They probably now know that RFK Jr. was a mistake. (The first person just died of measles.) His department doesn't have guns. The same could be said for cutting USAID. Their workers don’t have guns either.
Greenland, Panama Canal, Canadian statehood, even tariffs, all were unnecessary except as distractions which they didn’t need. Vance’s speech was blowing smoke. Likewise, cozying up to Putin, made no real sense.
Once Musk gave him the millions to help win the election there was no need to let him anywhere near the Oval Office. Like he’s done with others, Trump should have cut him loose without any payback for his services.
Trump & Co. continues to squander their power and waste their energy. For example there was no need to attack the media, kick the AP off Air Force One, and take over selection of the members of the White House Press Corps. They don’t need to control the media. Reporters don’t have guns.
I see this as the the consequence of the personal psychopatholgy of Trump, Musk, and others. Mostly it was Trump who, after the humiliation of losing the election, had his burning need for revenge festered through the E. Jean Carroll trial and literally hit home when the FBI raided Mar-a-Lago.
Trump has a need he can’t control. He has to put on a show. He has to scream “look at me!” He does this every day whether it is through his social media posts, his press appearances, or his signing executive orders making such photos of him doing so with his smiling face this are plastered everywhere. I’ll spare you photos since you’ve seen so many of them.
I predict you will see Trump backing off from many of the unnecessary assaults on democracy and norms, and focus on using the incredible power of the presidency, and the control of the people with guns, to become the monarch he's always wanted to be.
Trump is itching for an excuse to declare a national emergency and to declare martial law. All it will take is for something to happen during a protest rally for him to justify this. There are already are rallies across the country and there will be more and more of them. Some of them have resulted in a few people being arrested. Eventually someone will be hurt, or there will be looting and vandalism. It doesn’t have to be particularly bad, all Trump has to do is say that it was bad.
Then we come down to the question as to whether or not soldiers will follow unconstitutional orders. This sets the country up for a military coup, but I doubt this would happen because it would mean the military throwing out the elected leaders of the country and replacing them with generals who would govern until there could be truly free elections. That would be a step too far for them. I see generals and admirals resigning before they would do this.
Nobody can do more than imagine how far this will go. One thing I believe is that the United States that was envisioned by the Founders is in grave danger of disappearing. Democrats are hoping that they will take control of the Congress in 2026. If they do, this is no quarantee that Congress will act as a check on Executive Department excess. By 2026 Trump may have consolidated so much power he will just ignore Congress. He’s already breaking laws.
The same applies to the Supreme Court. If they try to rein in the implications of the previously enacted presidential immunity ruling and rule that the president doesn’t have imperial power, Trump can just ignore them. After all, the Supreme Court doesn’t have guns.
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