July 7, 2024

Prof. Alan Lichtman has a Plan B to save the Democrats from a chaotic convention if Biden decides not to run. Instead of announcing it, he should resign. By Hal Brown, MSW

 

A professor who has accurately called every US presidential election since 1982 has weighed in on this election.. In this article, , Should Biden step aside? Election predictor Allan Lichtman talks ‘Plan B’ he addresses concerns about incumbent and looks at the potential of Kamala Harris. He was on MSNBC this morning discussing this.

he convention to select a "Jed" Bartlett as candidate, I wrote that I thought Gavin Newsom would make a better candidate than Kamala Harris. If Biden did resign for this scenario to play out the Democrats would have to assure that their convention did not turn into chaos. Lichtman writes:

“If he resigns, not just steps aside from the candidacy, she retains the incumbency key and if he instructs all the delegates to support Kamala Harris, which he can, she would also retain the party contest key, and that is by far, the best Plan B,” he said, before pivoting to what he felt was less-than-ideal situation.

I disagree. I think they should go back what would now be smokeless backrooms to hash out who would be the strongest candidate to beat Trump.That person should be nominated on the first ballot.

The following is from his profile on Wikipedia:

Allan Jay Lichtman (⫽ˈlɪktmən⫽; born April 4, 1947) is an American historian. He has taught at American University in Washington, D.C., since 1973.

Lichtman created the Keys to the White House model with Soviet seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981. The model uses 13 true/false criteria to predict whether the presidential candidate of the incumbent party will win or lose the next election.[1] Using this model, Lichtman has accurately predicted the winner of every U.S. presidential election since 1984, with the exception of 2000,[2] although he did forecast successfully that Al Gore would win the popular vote that year, and 2016, where he predicted Donald Trump would win, despite Trump's popular vote loss.[3][4][5] He ran for the U.S. Senate seat from Maryland in 2006, finishing in sixth place in the Democratic primary. In 2017, Lichtman published The Case for Impeachment, laying out multiple arguments for the impeachment of Donald Trump.[6][7][8]

At present he does not recommend that Biden drop out of the race. He thinks this would be a disaster leading to a chaotic convention and an ultimate Democratic loss. If pressure forces Biden not to run Lichtmant has a plan B. He writes in the cited article:

“He should resign the presidency for the good of the country, that would be greatly applauded by the American people.

“Kamala Harris, much younger, no issue about her mental sharpness would become president, that would check off the incumbency key, and Biden would release all his delegates to support Harris at the convention to avoid an internal party fight, and that would also check off the contest key.

“That is a much preferable Plan B, if in fact the spineless Democrats force Biden out of this race.”

When he predicted a Trump win in 2016 he recieved this note congratulating him:

The article continues:

As for the 2024 US presidential election, Prof Lichtman said he’s not ready to lock in a prediction yet, although his prediction system currently favours Mr Biden.

“I have not made final prediction,” he said several weeks ago during a live-stream on his YouTube page. “I hope to make it about the same time as I made it in 2020, which was August,” he explained.

Prof Lichtman has also been critical of recent polls, insisting that this far before elections, they hold little, if any predictive value.

“That's the same kind of mistake that led the pollsters and pundits to be so dramatically wrong in 2016, to be wrong in 1988 and to be wrong in 2012,” he said.

These are the 13 keys to win a presidential election (from another Wikipedia page). If five or fewer of the following statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the election. If six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.

  1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
  2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
  3. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
  4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
  5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
  6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
  7. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
  8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
  9. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
  10. No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
  11. Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
  12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
  13. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

In my previous blog, Biden needs to withdraw, not designate a replacement, and allow the convention to select a "Jed" Bartlett as candidate, I wrote that I thought Gavin Newsom would make a better candidate than Kamala Harris. If Biden did resign for this scenario to play out the Democrats would have to assure that their convention did not turn into chaos. Lichtman writes:

“If he resigns, not just steps aside from the candidacy, she retains the incumbency key and if he instructs all the delegates to support Kamala Harris, which he can, she would also retain the party contest key, and that is by far, the best Plan B,” he said, before pivoting to what he felt was less-than-ideal situation.

I disagree. I think they should go back what would now be smokeless backrooms to hash out who would be the strongest candidate to beat Trump.That person should be nominated on the first ballot.

You can read this and previous blogs on two websites. One may look better than the other because of how the platforms present the page.

Read on the WordPress Stressline.org

or….

Read on the Google Blogger platform HalBrown.org This version has a Disquis comment section which makes it easy to post links and images.

No comments:

Amazing! Trump just got some bigots pissed off. By Hal Brown, MSW

  I had to read the RawStory article shown above three times to figure out what happened. Trump was showing his supposed support for law enf...