Trump is engaged in two fights against democracy. Both involve agents armed with guns. Are we a nascent police state? By Hal M. Brown

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This is the main page of HUFFPOST this morning:

The news about Trump defying a federal judge’s order is all over the media. There are lotsa guns in that story. In this instance it is ICE agents. There’s another story with lotsa guns. Rachel Maddow reported on it last night. You can see the 10 minute segment in the RawStory article here.

This is from The New York Times (subscription):

Musk’s Team Evicts Officials at the U.S. Institute of Peace

A bubbling dispute broke into a dramatic standoff that ended with police involvement and the Department of Government Efficiency taking up residence at the independent agency.

Excerpt:

A simmering dispute between the Department of Government Efficiency and an independent agency dedicated to promoting peace broke into an open standoff involving the police on Monday, as Elon Musk’s government cutters marched into the agency’s headquarters and evicted its officials.

The dramatic scene played out in Washington on Monday afternoon as Mr. Musk’s team was rebuffed from the U.S. Institute of Peace, an agency that President Trump has ordered dismantled, then entered it with law enforcement officers. Agency officials say that because the institute is a congressionally chartered nonprofit that is not part of the executive branch, Mr. Trump and Mr. Musk do not have the authority to gut its operations.

“DOGE just came into the building — they’re inside the building — they’re bringing the F.B.I. and brought a bunch of D.C. police,” Sophia Lin, a lawyer for the institute, said by telephone as she and other officials were being escorted out.

George Moose, who was fired as the institute’s acting president last week but is challenging his dismissal, accused Mr. Musk’s team of breaking in. “Our statute is very clear about the status of this building and this institute,” he told reporters. “So what has happened here today is an illegal takeover by elements of the executive branch of a private nonprofit corporation.”

If anyone still disputes the evidence that Trump is now a dictator who, when defied, is willing to use his own Gestapo and SS they have their head so deeply in the dirt that it may be poking into the Earth’s substrata. If they bury themselves too much deeper in denial it will get pretty damn hot for them.

How far will this go? There’s a name for the kind of country we could become. It is called a police state. At it’s extreme it looks like this.

This is the Wikipedia defintion:

A police state describes a state whose government institutions exercise an extreme level of control over civil society and liberties. There is typically little or no distinction between the law and the exercise of political power by the executive, and the deployment of internal security and police forces play a heightened role in governance. A police state is a characteristic of authoritarian, totalitarian or illiberal regimes (contrary to a liberal democratic regime). Such governments are typically one-party states and dominant-party states, but police-state-level control may emerge in multi-party systems as well.

Originally, a police state was a state regulated by a civil administration, but since the beginning of the 20th century it has "taken on an emotional and derogatory meaning" by describing an undesirable state of living characterized by the overbearing presence of civil authorities. The inhabitants of a police state may experience restrictions on their mobility, or on their freedom to express or communicate political or other views, which are subject to police monitoring or enforcement. Political control may be exerted by means of a secret police force that operates outside the boundaries normally imposed by a constitutional state. Robert von Mohl, who first introduced the rule of law to German jurisprudence, contrasted the Rechtsstaat ("legal" or "constitutional" state) with the anti-aristocratic Polizeistaat ("police state").

Russia and other totalitarian countries have their own versions.

Some of my friends say “it can’t happen here.” Others say it can happen here. I am seeing indications it is already happening and what we have is a nascent police state. Trump is testing the limits. Trump and Musk and their lieutenants want to see how far they can go. They don’t know what will happen but I am certain they have considered the possibility that there will be massive protests. I am just as sure that they have a contingency plan for this. They will wait until there’s a protest that gives Trump an excuse to say it is a national emergency and declare martial law.

From Wikipedia:

Martial law is the replacement of civilian government by military rule and the suspension of civilian legal processes for military powers. Martial law can continue for a specified amount of time, or indefinitely, and standard civil liberties may be suspended for as long as martial law continues. Most often, martial law is declared in times of war or emergencies such as civil unrest and natural disasters. Alternatively, martial law may be declared in instances of military coups d'état.

This would put the onus for carrying out unconstitutional, illegal, and un-American presidentiall on true patriots in the military. Would they bend to Trump and Hegseth or could we actually have a military coup d'état?

Update:

This is in response to Trump. But Trump has the guns. Roberts doesn’t. He depends on the respect for the rule of law.

Read my related Substacks below.

Read all of my Substacks.

Think DOGE is bad, WOGE will be way worse, By Hal M. Brown - Trump is ready to launch his Weaponized Office of Government Extremism. Can he do this?

I think Trump has been testing what he can get away with as he orders his gun totting and missile firing troops to engage in more and more aggressive actions. The most recent two were having the Venezuelan gang members deported by invoking the Alien Enemies Act, the action blocked by a federal court, and ordering military strikes against the Houthi terrorists in Yemen.

On the latter, consider Trump’s words:

"Today, I have ordered the United States Military to launch decisive and powerful Military action against the Houthi terrorists in Yemen. They have waged an unrelenting campaign of piracy, violence, and terrorism against American, and other, ships, aircraft, and drones."

"It has been over a year since a U.S. flagged commercial ship safely sailed through the Suez Canal, the Red Sea, or the Gulf of Aden. The last American Warship to go through the Red Sea, four months ago, was attacked by the Houthis over a dozen times. Funded by Iran, the Houthi thugs have fired missiles at U.S. aircraft, and targeted our Troops and Allies. These relentless assaults have cost the U.S. and World Economy many BILLIONS of Dollars while, at the same time, putting innocent lives at risk," he added. "The Houthi attack on American vessels will not be tolerated. We will use overwhelming lethal force until we have achieved our objective. The Houthis have choked off shipping in one of the most important Waterways of the World, grinding vast swaths of Global Commerce to a halt, and attacking the core principle of Freedom of Navigation upon which International Trade and Commerce depends."

Trump also said, "Our brave Warfighters are right now carrying out aerial attacks on the terrorists’ bases, leaders, and missile defenses to protect American shipping, air, and naval assets, and to restore Navigational Freedom. No terrorist force will stop American commercial and naval vessels from freely sailing the Waterways of the World."

He then continued, "To all Houthi terrorists, YOUR TIME IS UP, AND YOUR ATTACKS MUST STOP, STARTING TODAY. IF THEY DON’T, HELL WILL RAIN DOWN UPON YOU LIKE NOTHING YOU HAVE EVER SEEN BEFORE!"

In typical Trumpian all caps bellicose bluster he threatens hell raining down like nothing these terrorists have seen before.

“Why now?” one should ask. The Houthi terrorists have been doing this for a year. 

I think this is Trump making sure he can order the U.S. military to conduct an armed attack. This would appear to be a legal action, but aside from the visceral thrill he gets from being the Commander in Chief ordaining that bombs rain from the sky against his enemies, I believe he wants to make certain he can order the military to follow any other order no matter how far it pushes the bounds of legality. He’s already threatened military action against Greenland and has toyed with the idea of sending the military to go after drug gangs in Mexico. 

Incredible as it should not seem to be, considering this is Trump being Trump, he has ordered contingency plans should he decide to invade Panama.

President Donald Trump has directed the Pentagon to prepare plans for carrying out his threat to "take back" the Panama Canal, including by military force if needed, two U.S. officials familiar with the situation toldNBC News Thursday.

According to the outlet, the officials said that U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) is drawing up potential plans that run the gamut from working more closely with Panama's military to a less likely scenario in which U.S. troops invade the country and take the canal by force. They also said that SOUTHCOM commander Adm. Alvin Holsey has presented draft strategies to be reviewed by U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who is scheduled to visit Panama next month.

The officials explained that the likelihood of a U.S invasion depended on the level of cooperation shown by the Panamanian military.

Trump has repeatedly refused to rule out use of military force to seize control of the vital U.S.-built waterway, as well as Greenland, an autonomous territory of NATO ally Denmark.

The military may put together a plan, but the overriding question is whether or nor they would initiate it.

The megalomaniacal Trump is testing the waters to see how much he can get away with. I don’t think he particularly cares about the courts or public opinion. I do think he very much cares about the people with the actual guns and the people who fly the fighter jets and bombers. He’s already installed the leaders shown in my illustration, the blond devil in a dress Pam Bondi, Pete Hegseth, Kash Patel, and Tom Homan to head up the departments with the actual weapons. What he does not know is whether enough of the people under them will follow unconstitutional, illegal, and just plain un-American orders.

Trump can fire fireable leaders of the departments and agencies who do not follow his orders, and he can order those down the chain of command fired or, in the military, court-martialed, if they disobey his orders. For any leader to have a viable armed force, whether civil like ICE or the FBI, or the military, they must have the majority obey all orders. 

What Trump can’t do is what Stalin did to soldiers who tried to retreat: 

On July 28, 1942, Joseph Stalin, premier and dictator of the Soviet Union, issues Order No. 227, what came to be known as the “Not one step backward” order, in light of German advances into Russian territory. The order declared, “Panic makers and cowards must be liquidated on the spot. Not one step backward without orders from higher headquarters! Commanders…who abandon a position without an order from higher headquarters are traitors to the Motherland.” (Read more here)

Our agents and soldiers who refuse illegal orders won’t be cowards. They will be patriots. I want to assume Trump can’t order them shot and have an order like this followed. At least I hope he can’t.

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Please save me time and effort and read my opinions in Substack.

 

These are just the most recent Substacks. It just takes too long to reports them here.

.Holy F*cken Sh!t, Sabrina Haake!!!! My comment to you has become most of my Substact today.

In order to understand my title and my entire Substack today you have to read Sabrina Haake’s “Haake Take” today. Yesterday, my friend Sabrina asked me via email how I came up with ideas for my Substacks. I said that generally as I looked over the news an idea I hoped was an original take or perspective popped into my head. This morning the idea came from what she wrote in her Substack. 

 The oligarch takeover is America's tall ships moment 

 She uses a photo of Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Tesla’s Elon Musk at Donald Trump's second presidential inauguration for her illustration. She uses them to represent the tall ships. 

 She begins: 

 According to the theory, natives literally couldn’t “see” the ships, because they had no experiential familiarity with them. Quoting from What the Bleep do we know?, a paradigm-shifting take on human perception, native people ignored the huge ships because “their highly filtered perceptions couldn't register what was happening, and they literally failed to see them.” When Captain Cook/Columbus/Magellan sent their men ashore in smaller longboats loaded with guns, the natives registered what they saw and began their futile resistance. 

 She concludes: 

 I have wondered all my adult life how the Germans let Hitler happen. And now, like the man who couldn’t live without knowing how his wife died until he met her same fate in The Vanishing, I know. People didn’t react because most couldn’t see what was happening. Those who could see Hitler--Germany’s tall ships--didn’t believe what they saw. And those who both saw and believed their own eyes thought there would be a sane stopping point. There wasn’t then, and there won’t be now. 

 I used to live a couple of towns over from Plymouth, Mass. and often we went to the harbor where the replica of the Mayflower is moored. We visited Plimoth Patuxet (previously called Plimoth Plantation). I decided to use a painting of the Mayflower, the colonists, and members of the Wampanoag tribe from a Britannica article as my illustration. Read her Substack. 

Then read my slightly edited comment below: 

 Holy Fucken Shit, Sabrina!!!!!! 

 You nailed it in one analogy, one I haven't heard before. Then you segued into a comparison we all have used. The Native Americans couldn't see the tall ships. Even if they were bristling with 50 cal. machine guns, had cruise missile launchers, and the colonists had Marines with M-16 assault rifles, they would have been invisible. 

 I also grew up wondering about how everyday Germans could let Hitler happen. This may have because of being Jewish or just because my father served on a hospital ship in the war. The playbook for what is happening here, now, and may very well happen in a short period of time isn't Mein Kampf or Project 2025. It is in the history books but we don't need to look at them. It is common sense. 

Trump, his minions, and his enablers have already begun their blitzkrieg to turn us into some yet precisely undetermined kind of combination of a cruel dictatorship, a police state, and an oligarchy. Even Trump doesn't know exactly what it will be except that whatever it turns out to be he intends to be the absolute ruler for as long as he lives. 

 Those of us who understand his psychopathology aren't surprised by anything he does. Speaking of tall ships (and those container ships are tall), the latest order to have the military submit a plan for invading Panama, fits with his need to be a saber rattling ruler who strikes fear into everyone he aims his wrath at. Putin invaded Ukraine, Trump wants to invade Greenland and Panama. He's ready to declare war on NATO. 

 Democracy loving Americans protesting won't stop him. He wants to find an excuse to declare martial law to stop them. Court rulings won't stop him. He wants to defy the court proving they are impotent. Outraged Democrats in Congress and the outrage of media critics feed his cruel narcissistic hunger. 

Another Kent State Massacre won't stop him. He's a sadist. Bloodshed in the streets won't stop him. All this adds up to only one hope - aside from his death - to stop this. 

It is for the military to initiate a coup. Last week I thought it could be a what is referred to as "a soft coup." (From Wikipedia) "This is also known as a silent coup, an illegal overthrow of a government. Unlike a classical coup d'état, it is achieved without the use of force or violence." Now I am leaning towards a classical coup. 

This would entail, among other actions, tanks around the White House and the 82nd Airborne landing troops on the lawn. A general would be the acting president. The new administration would hold free and fair elections when the county was stabilized. 

 Additional thought: 

 Our tall ship moment is a combination of two groups of powerful people. One are the oligarchs who we knew had incredible control over our politics, but we did not know how malevolent they were. The other group are Trump, Musk, & Co. We knew they were malevolent, but weren’t sure they were all that malevolent. From what I can tell the oligarchs, with the possible exception of Musk, don’t call many of the shots. 

The shots may literally become real bullet shots since Trump controls the people with guns. It is still metaphorical, but when Trump and Musk say “shoot here” the oligarchs put on their noise suppressors and pretend nobody is getting hurt. 

Are we becoming a police state? Look at the definition. By Hal M. Brown

 

I'd like to believe I am being an alarmist. I hope I am wrong. If I am, I'll give the biggest mea culpa of my life.

Trump’s ICE Gestapo grabbed up a Columbia University student and sent him off to a detention camp in Louisiana. Then there was this:  ICE Deploys Tear Gas into Home To Take a Migrant; 'They Kept Throwing Things At Us'

Juan Ramón Hernandez-Limon, 28, was startled when ICE agents approached him while he swept his front porch in San Antonio, Texas, on Friday, January 31. The agents did not have an arrest warrant, so Hernandez-Limon retreated into his home, where his wife, their one-year-old daughter, and two other minors were present.

The interaction was followed by a six-hour operation that involved local, state, and federal agents equipped with military-style vehicles. While waiting outside Hernandez-Limon's home, the agents obtained the arrest warrant they needed and proceeded to break windows and doors, deploying tear gas into his home, according to a new report by Univision.

Hernandez-Limon's wife spoke anonymously to a network reporter to discuss the incident. She said the family was trying to exit the household but was afraid of being struck by the objects the agents were throwing into their home.

These are just two examples. There have been others and there will be more. Consider the defintion of a police state from Wikipedia:

A police state describes a state whose government institutions exercise an extreme level of control over civil society and liberties. There is typically little or no distinction between the law and the exercise of political power by the executive, and the deployment of internal security and police forces play a heightened role in governance. A police state is a characteristic of authoritarian, totalitarian or illiberal regimes (contrary to a liberal democratic regime). Such governments are typically one-party states and dominant-party states, but police-state-level control may emerge in multi-party systems as well.

Originally, a police state was a state regulated by a civil administration, but since the beginning of the 20th century it has "taken on an emotional and derogatory meaning" by describing an undesirable state of living characterized by the overbearing presence of civil authorities. The inhabitants of a police state may experience restrictions on their mobility, or on their freedom to express or communicate political or other views, which are subject to police monitoring or enforcement. Political control may be exerted by means of a secret police force that operates outside the boundaries normally imposed by a constitutional state. Robert von Mohl, who first introduced the rule of law to German jurisprudence, contrasted the Rechtsstaat ("legal" or "constitutional" state) with the anti-aristocratic Polizeistaat ("police state").

I subscribe to The Contrarian, the Substack started by Jennifer Rubin when she left The Washington Post and lawyer Norm Eisen who made the news yesterday. In this conversation, Rubin talked with the founder of Indivisible, Ezra Levin. They are talking as if we aren’t living in a police state. This is my comment with a link to a Substack I posted two days ago.

All this seems to me seems to be a la-de-dah happy talk and refusal to admit that we have rapidly gone beyond being a nascent police state to being a police state just gaining unstoppable momentum. Geeze, folks, read the news. The people with the guns have taken over. They just grabbed up a student in NY and sent him of to a detenton camp in Louisiana. ICE terrified a family throwing flash bang grenades into their house. What's next, declaring Indivisible an enemy of the state? Only the other group with guns can save us. This is the US military. I try to lay how this could be done here: https://halbrown.substack.com/p/thinking-the-unthinkable-about-fighting

Basically what I have been saying is that the only people who can save democracy from the people with guns in the enforcement arm of the police state is the people with more, and better, guns. This is, of course, the military.

Are the generals and admirals going to sit idly by when we turn into a police state? I addressed another issue yesterday, the seeming alignment we now have with Russia. Between these two will the top leadership of the amrmed forces do what was once unthinkable. Will they do the only thing that can end a police state which may very well be trying to reshape the world order? 

There has been a great deal written about a coup effected by Donald Trump and his minions. This doesn’t meet the defintion of a coup, i.e., “a sudden, violent, and unlawful seizure of power from a government.” If we had a military coup it could meet this defintion if it was violent. It wouldn’t have to result in bloodshed. It could be what is called a soft coup (see Wikipedia).

Whether the power of the military is actually used (picture tanks around the White House) or not, the threat that they could do this would enable them to effect a soft coup. That would certainly be far more preferable than a hard coup.

I don’t know how far Trump has to go excercising the power of the police state before the media and public start ignoring many less alarming issues, or at least putting them in perspective. For example, the effects of tarrifs, DOGE with Musk’s street gang taking over Social Security with access to all your data and being able to cut or stop benefits. Then there’s the recent DEI absolute nonsense about Georgetown Law School: 

Ed Martin ‒ appointed by Donald Trump as interim U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, despite not having any prosecutorial experience ‒ emailed Georgetown Law School Dean William Treanor on Monday to whine about Republicans’ favorite bogeyman: diversity, equity and inclusion. Article.

Even abandoning Ukraine and the cruelty of cutting life saving USAID programs will be lead-up chapters in the book of how Trump and his enablers turned us into a police state.

I am afraid that before long we will look back at all of these matters as smoke and mirrors. We will see how they diverted attention from from how Trump made ordinary citizens live in fear having Gestapo thugs bust down our door in the middle of the night, or shoot flash bang grenades into our homes on an idyllic spring weekend.

I hope I am wrong about all of these dire predictions. 

Maybe public outcry about this will stop the excesses of the police state. Rather than a “hard police state” we’ll have what might be called a “soft police state.”

We may have to live with all the other noxious aspects of Trumpism until the midterm elections. Then, if the Democrats take over Congress, some of the policies can be thwarted. That is unless Trump dares to ignore the law. Two years after that, if we have a Democratic president, we can see a return to Democracy.

(About the photo. I took this on our cranberry farm property in Massachusetts. This was when local police departments decided they needed AR-15 rifles and needed to learn to shoot them. Previously they only had shotguns in their patrol cars.)

If you subscribe to my Substack you will receive an email every time I post. Respectful comments are always welcome. I generally reply to comments.

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