If DeSantis or another wins the GOP primary would Trump run as an independent? You bet your sweet ass he would.

By Hal Brown

As speculation that Trump is not a shoo-in for the Republican nomination grows like kudzu on steroids I wonder what would happen if Ron DeSantis or another Republican became the nominee. 

DeSantis seems poised to vanquish both Trump more so every week if not every day.  Other aspirants for the nomination may be waiting in the wings should DeSantis stumble, but my bet is that there's a 50% chance he'll beat Trump.

This is from Jamelle Boule in The NY Times (subscription)

The first assumption is: 

The idea that Republican elites could simply swap Trump for another candidate without incurring any serious damage rests on two assumptions: First, that Trump’s supporters are more committed to the Republican Party than they are to him, and second, that Trump himself will give up the fight if he isn’t able to win the party’s nomination.

This is the second:

This gets to the second assumption: the idea that Trump would go quietly if he lost the nomination to DeSantis or another rival. Donald Trump might have been a Republican president, but he isn’t really a Republican. What I mean is that he shows no particular commitment to the fortunes of the party as an institution. His relationship to the Republican Party is purely instrumental. He also cannot admit defeat, as you may have noticed.

There is a real chance that Trump, if he loses the nomination, decides to run for president as an independent. And if he pulls any fraction of his supporters away from the Republican Party, he would play the spoiler, no matter who the party tried to elevate against him. Republican elites might be done with Trump, but Trump is not done with the Republican Party.

If this should happen Trump has two choices. One is to accept defeat with grace and dignity. This doesn't sound like any version of Donald Trump I've ever observed. The other is to claim victory (be assured he'd find a way to do this) and run as an independent. 

Think of the fun he'd have, all the rallies of rabid MAGA fans waving flags depicting an even more badass Trump. I can see one with him dressed as a gladiator with one metal clad boot on Sleepy Joe Biden's neck and the other on the neck of Ron DeSantimonious as he raised a mighty sword towards Heaven. 

If he floated the idea with Republicans for their input this would be irrelevant unless they enthusiastically agreed with the decision he'd already made. The sensible Republicans know how many of his MAGA cult would vote for him would try to dissuade him from doing this. How do you spell spoiler?

Trump would listen to sycophants like Boris Epstein and Steve Bannon who desperately want to remain in his favor. Who knows what Sean Hannity would tell Trump if Murdoch told him to zip it?

Trump is driven by revenge and resentment and wouldn't give a tinker's damn whether he was a spoiler and single handedly destroyed the prospects for a Republican victory. 

The race itself would be a delight for Democrats because the Republican, let's assume it's DeSantis, would have to attack both President Biden and Donald Trump. Likewise Trump would have to attack both of them. Biden would be sitting in the catbird seat because he could just run on his accomplishments which by mid-2023 should be readily apparent.

Trump was always a Republican of convenience has because he has no central political philosophy. He knew that the only party that had a both a contingent which would welcome his racist dog whistles, fascism, and authoritarianism and another larger group that would go along with whatever he wanted to achieve their own agenda from appointing Supreme Court Justices to cutting taxes for the rich

Trump has no loyalty to the party. His only loyalty is to the party of one. There's no political science or punditry. My calculation is based on only on understand the psychology of Donald Trump.

You only have to look up malignant narcissism in Wikipedia to understand why the syndrome's exemplar or paradigm would behave this way:

Malignant narcissism is a psychological syndrome comprising an extreme mix of narcissism, antisocial behavior, aggression, and sadism Grandiose, and always ready to raise hostility levels, the malignant narcissist undermines families and organizations in which they are involved, and dehumanizes the people with whom they associate.

Malignant narcissism could include aspects of narcissistic personality disorder (NPD) alongside a mix of antisocial, paranoid and sadistic personality disorder traits. The importance of malignant narcissism and of projection as a defense mechanism has been confirmed in paranoia, as well as "the patient's vulnerability to malignant narcissistic regression". A person with malignant narcissism exhibits paranoia in addition to the symptoms of a Narcissistic Personality Disorder. Because a malignant narcissist's personality cannot tolerate any criticism, being mocked typically causes paranoia.

On another, but very related issue, there's the questions as to whether Ron DeSantis would resign from his position as governor (as it appears he might but not necessarily have to do if he runs for president,  see "If DeSantis wins and runs for president, would he have to resign as governor? There are options.")

I think in his grandiosity and his blind ambition this is how much he cares for the people of Florida as long as he doesn't needs their votes for governor. 

If he resigns he knows they'd still vote for him for president in a primary or general election. Florida has two senators, Marco Rubio who just easily won his bid for reelection over Val Demmings, and Rick Scott whose term expires in January of 2025.

If he doesn't become president I can see DeSantis running and winning against Scott in the GOP primary. The newly minted Sen. DeSantis could command a national stage, thus keeping him as a viable Republican candidate for president down the road.

I see nothing in his personality that indicates DeSantis would have any compunction about kicking a wounded Donald Trump while he was down even if polls showed Trump held an edge over him. 

He knows that unless Trump can been using Adrenochrome, which according to QAnon, is being harvested by liberal elites from the blood of kidnapped children and can confer immortality on those who use it, he can run for president without Trump getting in his way in the following presidential election.

It is worth noting what Frank Bruni wrote in his NY Times Opinion essay published in a subscriber only newsletter:

Tweeted by his wife, Casey, with the apparent expectation that it would draw notice and go viral, it casts DeSantis not merely as a model and promoter of selected (and selective) religious principles — that’s commonplace for Republican leaders — but as a divine instrument, a holy messenger, fashioned precisely into his current form and set specifically on his present mission by God.

In little more than 90 seconds, its unseen narrator mentions “God” 10 times, beginning with the assertion that “on the eighth day” God gazed at a newly created world and decided that it needed a protector. “So God made a fighter,” the narrator says — sonorously, somberly. That’s the ad’s refrain, intoned again and again, and accompanied each time by a shining, commanding image of DeSantis.

also:

Early this week, Trump suggested to a group of reporters that he had dirt on DeSantis and was prepared to spill it. “If he did run,” Trump said, “I will tell you things about him that won’t be very flattering. I know more about him than anybody other than perhaps his wife.”

That’s highly unlikely to deter DeSantis, given how celestially high on himself he is. He brings to his political ambitions not just the customary cockiness but a more sinister zeal and grandiosity. No wonder he gets under Trump’s skin. They’re megalomaniacs of a feather.

Progressives should stop undermining President Biden

 

This is the essay by Norman Solomon about why Biden would be a disaster in 2024 which Salon, a Democratic website not known to be hyper-progressive, decided to put in the most prominent spot on their site:

When you put your cursor on the front page to read the article this is what you see:

Wait a New York minute, what election is the author talking about, I wondered. The Democrats stood no chance of keeping the House and the control of the Senate hasn't been determined but it is looking good for the Democrats. Just about every honest pundit and journalist is describing the election as a win for the Democrats.

So in what world was Biden a drag on the Democrats in the midterms? If anything he was a sail catching the winds of national sentiment that independent  voters had had it with far right extremism and lunatic GOP candidates. Boring Bidenism won over the election denying lunatics carrying the lunatic banners (and they are so many) of Trump and Trumpism.

I read the essay and then looked up to see who the author was. Here are his previous Salon articles. It was not a surprise that he is an outspoken progressive and former Bernie Sanders supporter.

The first paraprgraph is the gist of Solomon's argument:

No amount of post-election puffery about Joe Biden can change a key political reality: His approval ratings are far below the public's general positivity toward the Democratic Party. Overall, Democrats who won in the midterm elections did so despite Biden, not because of him. He's a drag on the party, a boon to Republicans, and — if he runs again — he'd be a weak candidate against the GOP nominee in the 2024 presidential campaign.

One additional thing, while Solomon links to the Politico article "The red wave that wasn't: 5 takeaways" in his essay he doesn't include a quote that goes against his attack against Biden.

 

Extremism is a Democratic issue, too

All year — and especially in the closing days of the campaign — Democrats cast themselves as a mainstream alternative to the excesses of the GOP. But despite the overturning of Roe v. Wade and the hundreds of election deniers Republicans put on the ballot, voters on Tuesday did not appear to see it that way.

In preliminary exit polls, about equal proportions of voters said Democrats and Republicans were “too extreme.”

I view Solomon as an example of one of people the voters consider to be an extreme Democrat.

Breaking this down further, and avoiding the slam aimed at Democrats about post-election puffery, his comment about the polls is true but his conclusion is opinion, not fact. He doesn't know that Democrats won despite Biden. The midterms were not a referendum about Biden. If anything they were a referendum significantly on both Trump and Trumpism.

Read the article and see what you think, or don't read it. Having read the first paragraph it may suffice to read it and analyze the last paragraph here.

What does all this mean for people who want to defeat Republicans in 2024 and to advance truly progressive agendas? Joe Biden should not be the Democratic Party's presidential nominee. If he runs for re-election, representing the status quo, the outcome will likely be disastrous. Grassroots activism will be essential to create better alternatives.

First sentence above has two elements that are quite different. One is what the author's arguments add up to for those 99% of Salon readers who want defeat the Republicans in 2024 and the second is for those who want to advance the progressive agenda.

I consider myself a progressive, but I also know that there won't be a progressive agenda to advance if the Republicans win in 2024. 

Next, Solomon has a big "if" in the phrase "if he runs for re-election, representing the status quo..." Absolutely, he shows no signs he has so far in his presidency, or will represent the status quo, in the future. He hasn't been progressive enough for some but he isn't bullshitting when he touts his accomplishments so far and reminds people that they won't see the results for a period of months.

Instead of being doomed to failure his attempts to broker deals across the aisle in the Senate which has not become a Trumpian bastion has been effective. All hail the modest moderate who even when he tries to brag can't help having a self-effacing modesty. 

Now to Solomon's last sentence about grassroots activism. He should know about grassroots activism. He co-founded the online activist group Roots Action in early 2011.

He says that grassroots activism will be essential to create better alternatives, meaning I assume better alternatives to having Joe Biden run for president.

On the fact of it this may sound doable to progressives who want not only a candidate with a better chance of winning in 2024 but also leading a blue wave in Congressional and state election, but if they think they have a secret sauce for making progressivism the dominant force in American politics I have a bridge on the moon to sell them.

The only way for the Democrats to win national elections is to recognize that it was Biden who had the secret sauce and is was moderation both in policy and personality.

the 

Trump is ready to "rock and roll", will be do the Trumpty Dumpty?

Trump is ready to "rock and roll", will he do it to the Trumpty Dumpty?

By Hal Brown

Update on bottom of page

I think Rupert Murdoch who, more than any one individual, brought us the Donald Trump presidency, may have given us the name of his dance. In fact his NY Post illustration can easily be used to depict him dancing:

The following article prompted me to envision Trump actually trying to rock and roll. 

It is a summary of this Daily Beast article (requires subscription):

I don't know about the political wisdom for his campaign of announcing now. Politics aside, this is the portion that got to me:

The former president intends to announce his third White House bid Tuesday at 9 p.m., even as a number of Republicans have said publicly and privately that the party should move on from him, but sources told The Daily Beast he's ready to "rock and roll."

Someone put together a compilation video so I could remind myself of his self-satisfied dance moves. 

Click above to view video

He no doubt thinks he's John Tavolta in Saturday night fever when in fact he's more like Elaine dancing on Seinfeld:

On consideration, I think Elaine, who like Trump believes she's an excellent dancer, is a better dancer if only because she is really letting go. I venture a guess that Julia Louis-Dreyfus really enjoyed doing these scenes. Here's a brief video of her explaining how she put together the well known Elaine Dance.

Sources supposedly who know of what they speak say that Trump is "ready to rock and roll" though I don't see any reports that he has said these words.

I don't really think it is in character for him to say those words, though perhaps he's heard them in a war movie before the good guys move out, as in "let's rock and roll." He may say this before he takes the stage in some of his rallies to "YMCA" or another rock song though I doubt it.

Having written this, I can't wait to see how he makes this announcement. Will he dance? Points for me if he does.

(Watch another video here).

Update:

It is official now that one of Trump's sleaziest looking sycophants, Jason Miller, announced Trump was going to announce his candidacy on the show of one of his other sleazy looking sycophants:

Trump’s ‘Fired Up’: Jason Miller Says Former President Will Still Announce 2024 Run on Tuesday Despite Midterms Backlash - MSN

Now the only question is whether he will come out to make his announcement dancing the new Trumpity Dumpity perhaps to a new version of YMCA sung for him by The Village People. He could use as a backdrop an image from the soon to be released video game Hellscape.

click above to enlarge

I managed to find good news for my friends in 10 states

Above are the states aside form Oregon where I have old friends who I keep in touch with.

In following the election results this year unexpectedly I ended up anxiously watching the returns from my newly adopted home state of Oregon since the race for governor was a nail-biter with the right-wing candidate having a good chance of winning. Thank goodness she didn't so I will have Tina Kotek as my governor for the next four years.

I also paid particular attention to the elections in the 10 states where friends live. 

Having lived in Michigan since college until we moved to Massachusetts I have lots of friends there. It was a relief to learn that not only did Gov. Whitmer win but so did all the Democratic statewide candidates. 

Then moving to the other state where I have the most old friends, Massachusetts, despite the misleading headline, this tells the story: 

Maura Healey wins Massachusetts governor's race, NBC News projects, as the first lesbian elected to lead a state

In fact this is literally correct since this election was called before the Oregon governor election was called on Wednesday, but Tina Kotek is also a lesbian.

One of my late wife and my closest friends lives is in Georgia. The good news from there is that Herschel Walker didn't win, but the final chapter will be written when he competes in a runoff with Sen. Warnock. Unfortunately Stacey Abrams lost the race for governor to Brian Kemp.

My best friend from high school and my first wife lives in California. The good news from California is that it is solidly blue thanks to the fact that most Republicans live in the less populated eastern parts of the state.

The race for mayor of Los Angeles is supposed to be non-partisan but it pits Rick Caruso and Karen Bass against each other because  incumbent Mayor Eric Garcetti could not run for re-election due to term limits. "The New York Times' Jennifer Medina wrote that the race “has focused on voters’ worries about public safety and homelessness in the nation’s second-largest city” and could “become a test of whether voters this year favor an experienced politician who has spent nearly two decades in government or an outsider running on his business credentials." 

My impression is that billionaire Caruso is much further to the right than Karen Bass who was chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus.

 This is what Axios has to say about this election: 

Why it matters: A first place showing for Caruso would send shockwaves across the Democratic Party and provide another data point that midterm voters in deep-blue places are fed up.

• But even a second-place finish would almost certainly keep him in play for November. With a dozen names on the ballot and some polling putting Bass, 68, a Black woman, and Caruso, 63, neck and neck, neither has an easy path to clear the 50% needed to avoid a runoff.
• Some Democrats have even privately fretted that Caruso could win outright before anyone figures out what's happening. He has spent some $37.5 million of his own money. Bass‘ campaign has raised $3.5 million and received $1.1 million in matching contributions.

I have one old friend and a niece who lives in Washington. I don't know about local races there but the good news is that Democrat Patty Murray won 57% to 47% against her Republican opponent. The winners of House races will likely reflect the eastern red sections of the state where I expect there will be GOP winners.

I could even find one piece of good news from Florida where my dear toddler girlfriend lives.

Florida Democrat Maxwell Alejandro Frost made history after he became the first member of Generation Z to be elected to Congress. 25-year-old Frost won his race for Florida’s District 10 with a sweeping vote, pulling in 59% of the vote from his Republican opponent Calvin Wimpish, who only gained 40% of votes from Floridians. Frost will now succeed outgoing Democratic Rep. Val Demings. Of course Demings lost to Marco Rubio who won 58% of the statewide vote to Demings’ 41%.

I also found a smidgen of good news where my childhood best friend, the son of my mother's best friend, currently lives. He lives n the liberal enclave of Sun Valley, Idaho. Of course Idaho is deeply red, but Republican incumbent Gov. Brad Little won easily over his Democratic challenger. What is significant is that he survived a GOP primary challenge from his Trump-backed lieutenant governor, Janice McGeachin.

I have two newly minted friends who live in Missouri. One of them is apolitical and I assume the other favors Democrats. I am not sure how they feel about the results from their state but while a Republican won the US Senate race of their two members of the US House the results were split with Democrat Cori Bush beating her Republican opponent Andrew Jones 72.82% to $24.38%. I think both of them are pleased  that voters approved recreational marijuana 53.11% to 46.89%.

One of my late wife's best friend from childhood lives in Maine where the important race was for governor. There Democrat Janet Mills will remain in office, beating GOP challenger Paul LePage. This is how The Guardian described LePage: 

Paul LePage: is Maine ready to welcome back the ‘Trump before Trump’?

In Virginia, while there were no major races for Governor or Senate, one House race made the national news where Abigail Spanberger won reelection in what is being called a bellwether Virginia district.

Now I am going to send this to the friends referenced here to see if they have anything to add from their home states elections.

Worst case Senate and House go Gop. but assume it is just the House.

Worst case Senate and House go GOP, but let's assume it is just the House. Here's what I think we should expect.

By Hal Brown

If the new House Speaker, who (hate to remind you) would be next in line for the presidency after Vice President Harris, is Kevin McCarthy as seems likely, can't control his caucus expect two years of gridlock as far as legislation and a revenge chaos clown show.

There will be a clamor among the Trumpainiacs like Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Goetz to impeach Biden. They may have lost gun-totting Lauren Boebert who was armed and demented. (MSNBC has yet to call the election.)

Greene and Boebert, two classy women... remember this: 

Most of the lunacy won't be on the floor of the House  itself. It will occur in committee hearing rooms where we will see, unless Kevin McCarthy can control the maniacs, efforts to impeach President Biden, Vice President Harris, and Secretary of Homeland SecurityAlejandro Mayorkas. The only cabinet secretary to ever be impeached was under President Ulysses S. Grant. This was William W. Belknap. He was impeached on March 2, 1876, for his role in the trader post scandal.

Of course there will be a major committee  investigation into Hunter Biden although even Trump pretty much gave up trying to demonize him since attacks against him didn't turn out to be a rally crowd pleaser, and they will cheer him for just about anyone he attacks.. 

In a day or two when the final results are in, unless the Democrats hold onto control of the house in which case expect a plethora of lawsuits from losing Republicans all or most of which would be denied in court. It is possible a judge could stay the results of a crucial election for short period of time.

I wouldn't be surprised if Democrats boycott all of these revenge impeachments hearings. The results will all be predetermined and nothing but a chance for the GOP loonies to showboat for Fox News which I doubt would bother giving them extensive live coverage if only because the only breaks for advertisers are during recesses. That is unless the chair decides to cut a deal with Fox and break for commercials every 10 minutes. 

Once the House impeaches, as we all have learned, the determination as to whether or not to remove someone from office goes to the Senate for trial. Since a supermajority would be needed for conviction even if the GOP had a majority of a few votes there's no way any of these people would be convicted so I can't see the Democrats presenting an extensive defense, or even a defense at all.

If they did put together a defense team composed only of members of The Squad I thought this would stick it to the Republicans. While having AOC in the hallowed hall addressing them would really burn their butts, but she's isn't an attorney. The Squad member who is a lawyer is Rashida Tlaib who ironically went to Thomas Cooley School of Law, which is the same law school Michael Cohen went to.

No matter who controls the Senate, if the GOP controls the House and it becomes useless for working on a legislative agenda this would provide plenty of time for Democrats to muster their resources to assure that all of them get reelected. 

They can focus on constituent services, fund raising, planning strategy for the next election, and in districts where they might face major opposition making sure voters understand why they should be reelected.

A few representatives from safe districts where another Democrat would easily win if they didn't run and who would make good presidential, vice presidential, governor, or Senate candidates down the road could also work to elevate their national profiles.

The Democrats have a deep bench of such candidates  but some have negatives that might make a national run difficult, in part because Trump demonized them.  Anyone on the January 6th Committee would probably be ruled out. Others who weren't on the J6 Committee. There are lots to chose from. Katie Porter comes to mind as a standout. She could turn out to be a formidable candidate for national office.