First, I want to be absolutely clear about my position. I think the insurrectionists must be vigorously prosecuted.
In watching the J6 hearing yesterday, especially where they showed how close the Proud Boys and other insurrectionists bent on killing Mike Pence came to achieving their goal, two very disturbing things occurred to me. One is that this revelation could be a good recruiting tool for the far-right militias, and the other is that it they can learn strategic and tactical lessons from the mistakes they made in achieving their goal.
From the point of view of those who were in the mob who came 40 feet from Vice President Pence, his aides, and the Secret Service detail can lead to the “we came so damn close” reaction. The likelihood that some of them probably would have died won’t be sobering for many of them. Few if any of them would have thought it would have been them who took a Secret Service bullet, and second they’d believe that such a martyrdom would have made them heroes of their movement.
I have little doubt that there are many people who have resisted doing this before would respond to calls to join far-right militias. One of the unavoidable results of the publicity generated by the televised hearing is that there are people across the country for whom this will make being a member of a far right militia seem glamourous.
I can see that the leaders of these groups who have avoided prison called an “Apalachin meeting” of sorts. This is when, in 1957, leaders of the Mafia met to coordinate their criminal activities. (Fortunately, 60 underworld bosses were detained and indicted following the raid.)
The incarceration of leaders like Proud Boys leader Enrique Tarrio, who has been charged with seditious conspiracy in connection to the Capitol assault, and others will only be a temporary setback. These people will become martyrs to the insurrectionist cause and the more well known leader’s images can easily end up as great recruiting tools for them. While the hearings show how close Trump’s mob came to undermining democracy their interpretation come from Trump himself that the goals was to preserve the Constitution. As long as he continues to send this message he is really their chief recruiter.
One of the messages coming out of the J6 Committee can be used as a slogan for far-right militias: “we almost succeeded last time, next time we will succeed”.
From their perspective one of the lessons from their failed attempt to be the tip of the spear for Trump’s coup is that if they try something similar again their planning and preparation must be far better. I have little doubt that if they tried this again they'd be armed with firearms. The leaders, some probably with a military background, would have to indoctrinate their troops in a kind of jihadist mentality so they’d be prepared to sacrifice their lives.
All I can hope for is that the Department of Justice and FBI are considering all these factors and looking back to their successes, and failures, in fighting organized crime as a template or roadmap for how they will dismantle and destroy these organized bad boys and their deadly toys.
As for the Capital Police, I think it won’t be long before we see them wearing body armor and carrying military assault weapons which are even more deadly that the civilian versions like the AR-15. Unfortunately, Americans will have to accept that access to the Capital will feel more like going through a TSA screening at an airport and that the police there look like members of a SWAT team.
On January 15, 2021 Newsweek published “Far-Right Militias Pose Greatest Threat to US National Security, Experts Say.”
Here’s an excerpt:
Far-right militias pose the greatest threat to the national security of the United States, experts tell Newsweek.
In stark language, they warned of the increasingly grave risk posed by these organized armed extremist movements, as they seek to capitalize on unprecedented political instability to wage war on their own country.
"The threat posed by domestic groups is real," Richard Fontaine, chief executive officer of the Center for a New American Security think tank, told Newsweek.
This is the world Trump ushered in for us. He remains the leader of each and every American far-right militia. If he died tomorrow he’d no longer be able to issue orders through thinly disguised tweets, or even directly through others, however in some ways he’d be stronger in death than in life.
